Tomorrow Will Be Crazy: 9 Fed Officials Back Hikes, Trump, and a Major Market Reset

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The $SPY experienced some scary selling today, closing down -1.25% and officially turning the S&P red on the week. The massive reversal happened after the Fed held rates unchanged but delivered a surprisingly hawkish summary of economic projections. Nine out of eighteen officials are now expecting at least one rate hike this year, with the median rate projection for 2026 being lifted all the way to 3.8%. Slower growth and higher inflation for longer is a dangerous combination, and fed funds futures are already pricing in two potential rate hikes over the next seven months. On top of that, the new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh announced he is completely eliminating forward guidance to focus strictly on the facts. This hawkish shift perfectly aligns with historical data showing that the stock market typically trades flat and then dumps hard following a new Fed Chair’s first meeting. Meanwhile, geopolitical wildcards are keeping the market on edge as the US and Iran look to potentially move up the signing of their peace deal. However, Donald Trump warned the deal is not final, stating that the US will go back to dropping bombs if he does not like the agreement. The biggest risk to the deal is the requirement for an immediate ceasefire on all fronts, but Israel carried out new strikes in Lebanon today and is still refusing to withdraw its troops from the south. With the market now sitting 2.56% off its all-time highs of $760.40, traders need to be heavily prepared for a brand new era of volatility.

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